The Fed, Tariffs, and the $3,371 Gold Spike

Nathaniel Cross

Updated: April 18, 2025

tariffs affecting inflation and gold prices

💥 Weekly Market Recap: Gold Breaks Records While the System Unravels

Monday – April 14, 2025:
Markets opened the week with volatility just beneath the surface. Gold shed $29.60, falling to $3,215.10 as some market participants took profits following last week’s explosive move. But the pullback was more of a technical breather than a fundamental shift. Silver held steady at $31.98, quietly signaling strong undercurrents of demand. The global equity bounce was driven more by headlines—temporary U.S. tariff exemptions—than any real relief. Underneath, corporate bond markets are showing signs of stress, with liquidity thinning and default risks rising.

Tuesday – April 15:
Gold crept up $10.90 to $3,237.20, inching closer to its record while silver maintained strength at $32.19. Traders held back, watching for catalysts. But when gold trades near all-time highs on muted volume, that’s not hesitation—it’s coiling. The market’s waiting for a spark, and the fuse is short.

Wednesday – April 16:
The spark hit. Gold blasted over $100 to hit $3,345—driven by surging safe-haven demand as tensions with China reached a boiling point. The People’s Bank of China continued its gold-buying spree, and Beijing’s aggressive moves signaled more than geopolitical gamesmanship—it’s part of a larger strategy to unseat the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. equities plunged, led by a brutal sell-off in tech. Nvidia’s $5.5 billion charge tied to potential China export restrictions is no footnote. It’s a symptom of unraveling supply chains and a weaponized economic landscape.

Thursday – April 17:
Gold pierced $3,371.90 in overnight trading—a new all-time high. But as U.S. markets opened, traders locked in profits, pulling gold back to $3,321.50. Silver slid $0.52 to $32.45. Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw cold water on any hopes of a dovish pivot, warning that tariff-driven inflation could derail economic progress. His bluntness was unusual—and telling. Markets reeled. The Dow dipped, yields surged, and Trump publicly criticized Powell. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank trimmed its key interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling that global central banks are now out of sync—and out of tools.

Friday – April 18:
Markets drifted ahead of the long weekend. Gold softened as traders closed positions, but its floor remains solidly higher. With geopolitical tensions unresolved and the Fed cornered, this was no retreat. It was a tactical pause in a larger campaign.

🏛️ Powell’s Red Flag on Tariffs—and the Bigger Problem Behind It

For the first time in a long while, Fed Chair Jerome Powell openly challenged White House policy. His message was clear: the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff approach is threatening the Fed’s ability to do its job. The dual mandate—stable prices and maximum employment—is now under siege.

Here’s what Powell laid bare:

  • Tariffs = Higher Prices: Supply chain disruptions and trade barriers are inflation accelerants. That’s a fact.

  • Job Losses Are Coming: As the economy slows under tariff pressure, unemployment will rise.

  • Stagflation Is Back: Powell warned of a 1970s-style combo—rising prices and rising joblessness—where monetary tools become blunt instruments.

  • No Bailout This Time: Powell shut down talk of a “Fed put.” The central bank won’t slash rates just to appease Wall Street.

In plain English: the Fed knows it’s losing control of the narrative. And when Powell signals concern, you should act—not react.

⚠️ Trump’s Fed Pressure Could Backfire: The Case for Sovereign Money Has Never Been Clearer

As if economic pressures weren’t enough, Trump’s latest legal maneuver to challenge the Fed’s independence adds a dangerous layer to this unfolding drama. The Supreme Court is now considering whether presidents can fire leaders of independent agencies—including the Federal Reserve.

If that decision swings Trump’s way, it could give future administrations unchecked power over monetary policy.

What’s at stake?

  • A sell-off in Treasurys as global trust in U.S. financial governance erodes

  • Higher borrowing costs for Americans across the board

  • A currency crisis sparked not by economic fundamentals, but political meddling

This isn’t speculation—it’s precedent. We’ve seen what happens in countries where monetary policy becomes a puppet of political power. Inflation spirals. Capital flees. Sovereign debt becomes junk.

This is why gold matters. It cannot be printed. It cannot be hacked. And it doesn’t answer to politicians or central bankers.

🥈 The Silver Setup: 117 Million Reasons the Underdog Is Ready to Roar

While gold grabs headlines, silver is setting up for a long-overdue breakout. The 2025 Silver Survey tells the real story: a 117-million-ounce deficit, with no end in sight.

  • Industrial demand is resilient, even in a shaky economy—thanks to power grid upgrades and surging electronics production.

  • Solar demand has dipped, but it’s being replaced by other sectors.

  • Coin and bar demand is rebounding, especially in Germany and parts of Europe where faith in the euro is deteriorating.

And then there’s the gold-silver ratio. Still over 100. Historically, silver reverts to a ratio of 60 or lower when it plays catch-up. That implies serious upside from current levels—particularly as industrial buyers and sovereign mints chase dwindling stockpiles.

We’ve seen this movie before. When silver breaks out, it doesn’t knock—it crashes through the door.

📈 Gold’s Vertical Ascent: Erfle Sees the Parabolic Just Beginning

Mining analyst David Erfle isn’t mincing words: “Gold is starting to go parabolic.” And he’s not alone.

  • China is actively unloading Treasurys and buying gold, accelerating the global shift away from the dollar.

  • The Fed’s $9 trillion bond wall is becoming unmanageable. They can’t roll it over without raising rates or flooding the system with more liquidity—both paths lead to crisis.

  • Gold mining equities, especially the juniors, are staging a stealth breakout. As crypto enthusiasm fades, real assets are getting fresh attention.

Erfle’s own allocation—50% gold stocks, 30% physical metals, 20% cash—is a blueprint for weathering this storm. Not a “diversified portfolio” of ETFs and bonds. Real assets. Real protection.

🗓️ Economic Calendar (April 21–25): Volatility Ahead—Here’s How It May Fuel Gold & Silver

As markets brace for another week of headline risk, economic data will offer fresh clues on the direction of inflation, growth, and Fed policy. Here’s what to watch—and how each report could light a fire under precious metals.

📅 Monday, April 21

  • 10:00 AM ET – U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI), March
    Impact on Gold/Silver: A decline in the LEI would highlight softening economic conditions and could boost safe-haven demand for gold and silver. A surprise uptick might weigh on metals by reinforcing expectations for continued rate hikes or higher-for-longer policy.

📅 Tuesday, April 22

  • 9:30 AM ET – Fed Speak: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
    Impact on Gold/Silver: Markets will parse Harker’s tone for clues on future monetary tightening. Hawkish commentary could pressure metals by boosting yields. Dovish talk may support gold and silver if it signals economic fragility or a policy pause.

📅 Wednesday, April 23

  • 9:00 AM ET – Fed Speak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (Opening Remarks)

  • 9:30 AM ET – Fed Speak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem & Fed Governor Christopher Waller
    Impact on Gold/Silver: If multiple Fed officials emphasize persistent inflation or signal rate hikes, gold could face short-term headwinds. A cautious or dovish tone could trigger renewed buying.

  • 9:45 AM ET – S&P Global Flash U.S. Services PMI, April

    • Strong PMI = stronger dollar, bearish for metals

    • Weak PMI = recession fears rise, bullish for gold/silver

  • 9:45 AM ET – S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI, April

    • Resilient manufacturing = inflation risk = metals pause

    • Slowing production = safe-haven boost for gold/silver

  • 10:00 AM ET – New Home Sales, March

    • Strong data = confidence in economy, bearish for gold

    • Weak print = economic slowdown concerns, metals rally

  • 2:00 PM ET – Fed Beige Book

    • Hawkish summary = headwind for metals

    • Signs of cooling inflation or growth = bullish catalyst

  • 7:40 PM ET – Fed Speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    • Another opportunity for markets to read the tea leaves. Any hesitation or concern over economic strength will be bullish for metals.

📅 Thursday, April 24

  • 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending April 19)

    • Low claims = strong labor, hawkish Fed = bearish for metals

    • Spike in claims = recession risk = bullish for gold/silver

  • 8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders, March

    • Strong orders = confidence and inflation = pressure on metals

    • Weak or declining orders = concern over business activity = safe-haven support

📅 Friday, April 25

  • 10:00 AM ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final), April

    • Higher sentiment = strong consumer, reduced safe-haven demand

    • Drop in sentiment = economic concern, inflation fear = bullish for metals

This week’s data deluge is a stress test for monetary credibility and economic stability. Every whisper from the Fed, every data point that veers from expectations—each is another chance for gold and silver to reassert themselves as the ultimate financial insurance.

🛡️ Final Word: You Can’t Digitize Trust

They told us inflation was transitory. It wasn’t.
They told us the Fed had tools. They don’t.
They told us stocks and bonds were diversified. They’re not.

The truth? Most people are trapped in a system designed to extract value from their savings.

Gold and silver are your escape hatch. They’re not dependent on the Fed, Wall Street, or Washington. They’re not “issued.” They’re earned—mined, minted, and preserved.

And they’re waiting for you.

Secure your wealth today. Call Brighton Enterprises at 844-459-0042 or visit brightongold.com. Let us help you turn this moment into a legacy.

We are not financial advisors. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Please consult with a licensed professional for personalized guidance. This publication adheres to all SEC laws, rules, and guidelines.

Shopping Cart
Precious Metals and Currency Data Powered by nFusion Solutions