WEEKLY MARKET RECAP: A Five-Day March to Momentum
Monday – March 24, 2025
The week opened on a quieter note as gold prices eased slightly, a natural result of profit-taking after strong gains the week prior. April futures dipped $6 to $3,015.60, while May silver edged up to $33.53. The broader equity markets posted a three-week high, suggesting a modest revival in risk appetite.
The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly, creating headwinds for metals. Still, gold’s resilience in the face of rising stocks underscores its increasingly dual role—offering both stability and upside potential.
Tuesday – March 25, 2025
Tuesday saw a fresh spark in metals. Gold added nearly $14 and silver surged by $0.775 to close at $34.22, supported by continued safe-haven flows and a technical breakout that drew in speculative buyers. The U.S. dollar and oil both weakened, and Treasury yields held steady around 4.3%.
Persistent geopolitical unease, particularly around trade, added to the backdrop. From Brighton’s lens, we noted a growing trend: market participants are treating gold less as a reactionary buy and more as a foundational asset within diversified portfolios.
Wednesday – March 26, 2025
Markets moved with measured hesitation on Wednesday. Gold slipped just $2.20 to $3,023.70, as the dollar and Treasury yields inched higher. Silver remained stable, ticking up to $34.215. Though the momentum paused, low volatility at elevated levels suggested underlying strength.
Equity markets softened again, and this balance between modest corrections in risk assets and sustained interest in gold pointed to what I call “constructive neutrality”—a rare and telling sign of conviction in gold’s staying power.
Thursday – March 27, 2025
This was the breakout day. Gold hit an all-time high of $3,065.50 before settling at $3,060.70, propelled by a wave of safe-haven buying and low market volatility. May silver followed, hitting $34.745.
The catalyst? Continued global trade jitters and newly imposed tariffs, which reignited demand for strategic assets. From Brighton’s view, what stood out most was the composition of the buying—more institutional than retail, more allocation-driven than speculative.
Friday – March 28, 2025
Gold futures climbed to a record $3,124.40 before pulling back slightly. The Core PCE Index—a key Fed inflation gauge—came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the view that inflation is sticky, not transitory. Spot gold closed the week at $3,079.20, up nearly 0.75% on the day.
June gold held strong at $3,114.90 while silver posted a five-month high at $35.415. The inflation data, combined with cautious consumer spending and rising personal income, painted a complex picture—one that supports gold’s rising strategic appeal.
INFLATION, SPENDING, AND THE FED’S TIGHTROPE: GOLD’S MULTI-FACETED MOMENT
Friday’s PCE report didn’t just rattle the markets—it reaffirmed what we at Brighton have been tracking for months: inflation is embedded more deeply into the economic fabric than surface-level metrics suggest.
Inflation data in focus:
- Core PCE rose 0.4% in February—higher than January’s 0.3%.
- Year-over-year core inflation hit 2.8%, again above forecast.
- Headline inflation held steady at 2.5% annually.
This isn’t the type of spike that suggests panic. It’s a more subtle kind of pressure—persistent, slow-burning, and policy-complicating. Meanwhile, personal income surged 0.8% (double expectations), while consumer spending slowed to 0.4%.
As I noted in our team debrief Friday morning, “We’re looking at a climate where people are earning more, spending more cautiously, and simultaneously bracing for policy inconsistency.”
For market participants, this combination sharpens the appeal of gold—not as a panic button, but as a permanent fixture in a well-balanced strategy.
BofA Raises the Bar: $3,500 Gold on the Horizon?
Bank of America made headlines last week by lifting its gold price target to $3,500—calling for a sustained increase in demand from both institutions and retail channels. Their revised average for 2025 is now $3,063, with a bullish scenario pegged two years out.
What’s fueling this bold call?
- Institutional participation: Retail interest is rising, yes—but central banks, insurers, and sovereign funds are leading the charge.
- China’s insurance market: If just 1% of assets flow into gold, that alone could supply 6% of the market’s annual demand.
- Central bank rebalancing: Gold allocations now average 11%, up from 5.5% in 2000—but BofA argues the efficient frontier sits closer to 30%.
At Brighton, we’ve long viewed gold’s role in central bank reserves as an under-discussed macro force. When monetary authorities adjust their strategic assets, it sends ripple effects across global capital flows—and those are playing out now in real time.
The key takeaway? This isn’t about chasing performance. It’s about preparing portfolios for the next chapter of monetary and fiscal realignment.
BITCOIN VS. GOLD? BLOOMBERG SAYS BOTH.
It’s tempting to pit gold against Bitcoin, especially in a year when both are in focus. But as Bloomberg’s new indices suggest, there’s a more nuanced path forward—one where alternative assets complement rather than compete.
The breakdown:
- Gold is up 15% year-to-date, outpacing Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin, after peaking in January, is down 21% despite ETF momentum.
- Bloomberg’s hybrid index (BBIG) offers 50/50 exposure to both assets—cutting volatility and broadening appeal.
Jigna Gibb of Bloomberg Index Services put it well: “Inflation has become the big elephant in the room… This is when you need your alternative assets to work for you.”
At Brighton, we agree—though we’re clear-eyed about the difference in purpose. Gold offers durability and liquidity. Bitcoin offers growth potential and asymmetry. The synergy of both in one portfolio is a sign of sophisticated positioning, not indecision.
THE STRATEGIC REALIGNMENT: GOLD’S ROLE EVOLVES
What we’re seeing now is not just a gold rally—it’s a reclassification. Gold is transitioning from an alternative asset to a core component in many asset allocation frameworks.
According to the World Gold Council:
- Gold ETF inflows hit $19 billion year-to-date—$12 billion from the U.S. alone.
- Physical shipments to the U.S. have surged, with 214 tonnes from Switzerland in February.
- Central banks—including those in China, Poland, and Bolivia—continue to build reserves.
Crucially, the U.S. is beginning to treat gold with strategic importance. President Trump’s executive order naming gold as part of the nation’s “critical minerals” list underscores this shift—even without direct tariffs.
This is the kind of long-term structural story that aligns closely with our views at Brighton: inflation protection is important, but portfolio permanence is what really drives capital.
THE ROAD AHEAD: ECONOMIC DATA TO WATCH
Key Events | March 31 – April 4
- Tuesday: Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, JOLTS Report
- Wednesday: ADP Employment
- Thursday: Jobless Claims, Services PMI, ISM Services Index
- Friday: March Jobs Report
Brighton’s strategic lens on the data:
- Strong manufacturing/service numbers may embolden the Fed and strengthen the dollar, creating short-term headwinds for metals.
- Labor softness could support rate-cut expectations—bullish for gold.
- Friday’s Jobs Report will be pivotal. A surprise to the downside could shift the rate cut timeline forward, driving another wave of safe-haven demand.
Ready for What’s Next? We Can Help.
At Brighton Enterprises, we’re not here to chase headlines—we’re here to interpret the signals that shape real decisions. Gold’s rise is just one part of a larger story about inflation, capital flows, and strategy in a post-zero-rate world.
If you’re looking to deepen your understanding, align your portfolio with long-term macro trends, or simply stay informed—visit us at BrightonEnterprises.com. Our research, strategy briefings, and market insights are designed to empower people—not just during market shifts, but through them.
Let’s navigate this together.
